The Case For Texas

Our state is at a tipping point, and the myth that it's an unshakeable Republican stronghold is crumbling fast. Data shows that Texas — America's fastest-growing state — is rapidly moving toward a statewide Democratic victory — and it's happening quicker than you think.

For three decades, Republican leadership has failed Texans, alienating vast swaths of voters. But Texans are fed up and hungry for change — a fact that becomes clearer every election cycle.

With 40 Electoral Votes on the line, turning Texas blue could be the most seismic shift in American politics since Reagan flipped Texas in 1980. The time for change is now, and Texas Blueprint is our roadmap to making it happen.

We’ve Made Major Progress

Texas has become steadily more Democratic over the last decade — and it has done so more rapidly than any other battleground state.

  • These trends find an analog in several notable swing states that President Biden won in 2020, most notably AZ and GA.

  • In this analysis, we focused on contrasting TX with GA, whose trends mirror our own, and FL, a state of comparable size and electoral significance.

  • The underlying reasons for this shift inspire confidence that the trend towards Democrats will continue in 2024 and beyond.

In the past two presidential elections, we’ve cut our margins in half. And 2016 was the first presidential election in decades where Hillary Clinton came within single digits of defeating Donald Trump. It is clear just how much Texas has moved each election cycle. No state has made more progress in the same timeframe. Conversely, no state of equivalent electoral significance has been less heavily invested in by national partners. It’s up to all of us to begin the work necessary — right now — to turn Texas around.

In terms of marginal two-way vote share, Texas has trended Democratic more rapidly than any other battleground state.

The Most Competitive Senate Race in the Country is in Texas

Texas is consistently rated by experts and pundits as one of the most competitive Senate races for Democrats in 2024. Just ask the writers at: Inside Elections, Race to the White House, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Cook Political, Split Ticket, Elections Daily, 270 to Win, US News.

Down Ballot Coordination Is Key

Any investment in Texas, and especially in Texas Blueprint, is an investment in more than statewide victory. Texas Democrats and our coordinated campaign partners are laser-focused on lifting up candidates further down the ballot, helping Texas Democrats win and build power closer to the voters, for the long-run.